"Early warning" written by Burd ('87)

US: introduced MMR II - 1979 (without the immediate elimination of prior MMoR supplies)

Early warning:

Birth years: ‘78 – ’83 found that 66% of cases occurred in the youngest 33% Authors clearly realized that this was: “difficult to explain” The gradual introduction of the MMR II occurred from ’80 – ’83. The youngest were at higher risk of receiving the MMR II (since these final 2 years coincided with the increasing dominance of the market by the MMR II). This lopsided occurance of autism in the youngest 33% would support an association of autism with the MMR II.

"Focus on regression, not on change in incidence of AD" written by Fombonne & Chakrbati ('01)

MFS sample: born ’54-79 = 99 cases/25 yrs. – [4 cases/yr]
MMR27/3 introduced 10/88
MHC sample: born ’87-96 = 68 cases/9 yrs --- [7+ cases/yr]
Stafford sample: born ’92-95 = 97 cases/4 yrs. --- [24+cases/yr]

Not indicated was incidence/base population but the numbers would demand markedly different base populations if one is to ignore the data.