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   Articles below by: Taylor,    Honda,   Farrington,   Miller,   Taylor,   Kaye

Sudden Step Up in AD incidence by Taylor

     Born 1979-92……Evaluation: mid ‘98
                                No sudden step up in 1987 group - since the MMR II was introduced in 10/88 - they expected to see a "sudden step up" in the incidence of AD. Since this wasn't seen, this was taken as evidence of no association of MMR II with AD/ASD.
           
                Explanation why no sudden step up:
1)      “catch up”doses of MMR II - given to children > 2yr age
2)      Slow recognition by “professionals trained to recognize the disorders”
 
Both contributed to the more gradual curve seen in their Figure 1.
 



Separate Administration by Honda

In the study, they stopped using MMR II – but the increased incidence of ASD persisted.

               BUT …monovalent rubella vaccine CONTINUED to be given
  

Conclusion:

This study shows:Separate administration of measles, mumps and rubella does not reduce the incidence of ASD.

This study does not exonerate the rubella II strain.




No MMR II vs. MMR II written by Farrington, Miller, Taylor

Birth years: ’79-’92 (= 168 mo.) → 357 cases of Autism
        ’79-10/87 (pre-MMR II) = 64 cases/106 mo. (0.6 cases/mo.)
      10/88 MMR II introduced in UK
      10/87-’92 (post MMR II) = 293 cases/62 mo. = 4.7 cases/mo.
 
Study focused on clustering - which indeed did not occur
ilack of clustering does not exclude association of ASD with MMR II
 
The above data supports the association of MMR II with the increased prevalence of autism.



Non-parallel increase in AD vs. MMR II use written by Kaye

MMR II introduced in 10/88:  

In boys: incidence of ASD increased from 8/10,000 in ‘88 to ENTER DATA in ’93.
Fig. 2 shows a steady increase: 1st four years,
  Flat: 5th year &
    final increase:  last year.
     Problems (as outlined in the paper):
1)      increase in diagnoses “could be due to increased awareness”
2)      changing diagnostic criteria (The confusion over PDD vs. AD took several years to recognize. It certainly contributed
to this non-parallel increase between the MMR II and ASD.) 
                                             

If you are interested in having a slide presentation of this data:
please contact me through e-mail: distant_horizon@charter.net 
Frank Fischer MD, FAAP